I'm with you: stand in place for more than a moment, look deeply at what's real in the real world, take a full 360 and see the cracks in the wall (if the wall hasn't been destroyed by war or the infuriating deep divide or whatever) and--as they say--take stalk. This is what you've done so well for such a long time. We all need to grasp that the U.S. is NOT the world, does not rule the planet with a gentle loving hand and it can destroy in the wake of its running either away or toward some damn "we gotta get this done," nonsense. The polycrisis provides all the reality any of us can take which I think keeps us in the paradox of we're no longer global but by golly global but nobody told "global." Global is not going away and it's just bigger than any action the U.S. can take to save the U.S. whether we like it or not.
Caution is wise. It will also be ignored. There is a cultural element in the operations of the Fed, a bias toward coupon clippers. Keeping inflation down trumps all other policy goals. A clear recession is the only sure indicator that inflation is dead. So interest rates will increase until there is a recession. Unfortunately that will become evident in mid to late 2023, securing in the public’s mind that Biden cannot run the economy, and Trump or some Trumpist gets elected in 2024. Goodbye democracy.
All you said comes down to the fact that the Fed looks at interest rates as THE instrument of monetary policy. In fact, interest rates don´t matter for monetary policy, only money matters! But the can do a lot of harm.
I'm with you: stand in place for more than a moment, look deeply at what's real in the real world, take a full 360 and see the cracks in the wall (if the wall hasn't been destroyed by war or the infuriating deep divide or whatever) and--as they say--take stalk. This is what you've done so well for such a long time. We all need to grasp that the U.S. is NOT the world, does not rule the planet with a gentle loving hand and it can destroy in the wake of its running either away or toward some damn "we gotta get this done," nonsense. The polycrisis provides all the reality any of us can take which I think keeps us in the paradox of we're no longer global but by golly global but nobody told "global." Global is not going away and it's just bigger than any action the U.S. can take to save the U.S. whether we like it or not.
Great, thoughtful piece
Caution is wise. It will also be ignored. There is a cultural element in the operations of the Fed, a bias toward coupon clippers. Keeping inflation down trumps all other policy goals. A clear recession is the only sure indicator that inflation is dead. So interest rates will increase until there is a recession. Unfortunately that will become evident in mid to late 2023, securing in the public’s mind that Biden cannot run the economy, and Trump or some Trumpist gets elected in 2024. Goodbye democracy.
They should have raised the target to 3% several years ago, in non-suspicious times.
I enjoyed this a lot.
All you said comes down to the fact that the Fed looks at interest rates as THE instrument of monetary policy. In fact, interest rates don´t matter for monetary policy, only money matters! But the can do a lot of harm.